大學英語四級模擬試卷第06組（閲讀3）

Passage 3
Questions 31 to 35 are based on the following passage.
The first pre-election poll, or “straw vote”,as it was then called,was conducted by the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian before the 1824 presidential election.This straw vote and the many that followed it really registered nothing but local opinion.However, as communications improved and elections were won by closer and closer margins,newspapers and journals tried desperately to satisfy their readers’ curiosity in more reliable ways.
Before the 1928 elections,no fewer than eighty-five publications made private inquiries,generally by means of questionnaires(問卷、調查表)sent to subscribers(訂戶) and by telephone surveys.The principle common to all these inquiries was that they depended on quantity rather than quality;little effort was made to reach representatives of all segments(部分) of the population.Still,the erroneous belief persisted that the greater the number of questionnaires,the more accurate the results would be .The record was held by the American monthly Literary Digest,which sent out millions of postcards with short and pointed questions before each election,and received many hundreds of thousands of replies.In fact ,in 1932,the Literary Digest’s forecast was off by only 1 percent.
In view of such striking achievements,it seemed rather impertinent(粗魯的) for the young American journalist,George Gallup,to claim that large numbers were irrelevant,and that equally accurate or better predictions could be made with a small but carefully selected sample of the population and a small team of skilled interviewers.
In 1936,it took Gallup a long time to convince thirty-five newspaper editors that his system was much cheaper than the
customary mass inquiries and that it could provide surprisingly accurate predictions.The editors finally agreed,on condition that if Gallup’s predictions were less accurate than those obtained by the tried method of the Literary Digest,he would have to refund (賠償) the entire cost of the investigation.Although the Literary Digest broke its own record by obtaining two million replies to its electoral postcards that year,its prediction was wrong by 19 percent,whereas Gallup’s was off by less than 1 percent. 
31.From the passage we know that the earliest pre-election polls were ____ in reflecting the public opinions.
A)meaningful B)inaccurate C)satisfying D)successful

32.除了____之外，下列各項都是第二段中提到的詢問的特征。
A)發出了大量的調查問卷B)強調數量而不是質量
C)幾乎沒有努力去採訪各行各業的人
D)美國的每一份出版物都蓡與其中

33.我們可以從文章中推斷出，起初報紙編輯是蓋洛普系統的成員。對充滿熱情和憤怒的

34.從文章中我們可以推斷出，在20世紀30年代早期，是一位著名的記者。《文學文摘》喜歡打破記錄。《文學文摘》是美國發行量最大的月刊。[ br/]D,《文學文摘》的方法在很受歡迎，也很受歡迎

35.Gallup’s system proved to be____ .
A)much cheaper B)a great failure
C)a huge success D)much costly 位律師廻複