二會後股票大概率上漲

股民非常關心二會後股票是漲還是跌，表1給出了歷年二會上証漲跌數據。由表可知，2023年二會前五個交易日上証漲幅2.19%，二會期間上証已經跌3.12%，下周一會議閉幕，除重大利好，上証很難上漲3.12%。所以，今年二會期間股票是跌。查表1，近14年以來，2009年、2011年、2013年、2014年、2019年二會之前漲，二會期間跌，二會之後漲。所以表中X大概率爲正數，也就是，從下周一開始，今年二會之後大概率上漲，漲幅在2%左右。

表1. 歷年二會前後期間股票漲跌

開幕日期閉幕日期前五天期間後五天20230305202303132.19-3.12X2022030520220311-2.65-4.420.922021030520210310-3.790.450.752020052120200528-1.941.372.6720190303201903132.18-1.213.572018030520180320-0.07-0.26-5.0820170305201703150.161.08-0.6220160305201603167.220.251.892015030520150313-2.136.426.4620140305201403130.59-2.682.1120130305201303171.44-4.563.722012030520120314-1.71-1.520.0820110305201103143.04-3.330.782010030520100314-1.13-2.493.1720090305200903135.02-1.817.420080305200803181.4-13.74-4.2920070305200703162.46.133.472006030520060314-0.63-1.091.682005030520050314-0.94-1.9-5.152004030520040314-3.216.051.12003030520030318-1.02-1.89-0.9420020305200203151.963.483.0620010305200103161.42.332.542000030520000315-1.41-4.377.9919990305199903163.861.480.8519980305199803190-1.572.9419970301199703155.038.972.7919960305199603175.441.450.4119950305199503168.92-3.692.981994031019940322-1.241.09-2.6719930315199303316.93-22.5223.5419920326199204030.730.182.461991032519910409-2.13-1.2-1.91