《經濟學家》讀譯蓡考：而今邁步從頭越－花旗收購廣發(1)

Start of the long march

　　Nov 16th 2006 | BEIJING AND HONG KONG
　　From The Economist print edition

　　IF, AS seems likely, consumer banking in China takes a great leap forward, Guangdong Development Bank has obvious appeal. It has 13m customers, 500 branches, a strong franchise in the manufacturing hub near Hong Kong and a national licence that could permit years of formidable growth. （1）So Citigroup's chief executive, Charles Prince, must have been thrilled to fly into Hong Kong this week on unrelated business to find that a bidding consortium led by his bank was about to win control of Guangdong after a bruising[1] auction that lasted more than a year. It beat Société Générale, a French bank.

　　The deal marks the first time foreigners have been allowed into the driving seat of a big, potentially national, Chinese bank. But the main reason the authorities gave Mr Prince and his partners such access is because Guangdong is a wreck. Its most recent audited statement in 2003 showed that non-performing loans represented an alarming 22% of its portfolio. A report in the government-backed China Daily agency put non-performing loans[2] at 25% in 2005. That suggests its performance may be getting worse even as China booms.

　　To win Guangdong, Citigroup initially bid for outright control at the request of the local authorities. （2）The offer was withdrawn under national government pressure because of limits on the stake of any foreign investor in a Chinese bank to 20%, and of total foreign investment to 25%. An awkward consortium was assembled which includes IBM, China Life （the country's biggest insurance company）, State Grid （an electrical utility）, and Citic Trust （a government-backed holding company）. Citigroup's lead role is implicit but not explicit, which may do it no favours when it attempts to bash Guangdong into shape.

　　The group is expected to pay $3.1 billion for 85% of Guangdong. Typically banks are valued as a multiple of book value[3]. Realistically, Guangdong may have no book value or even a negative one. But the bidders are betting on opportunity, not an institution."This is not a banking deal," says a lawyer whose client lost out in an earlier round of bidding."It is a China deal."

　　any banks are eager for such deals but their ways of going about it differ. Some have invested passively, praying that the Chinese banks manage themselves well. Bank of America bought 9% of China Construction Bank in 2005 for $3 billion; that stake has tripled in value. Goldman Sachs has made a similar fortune with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. （3）Other big banks believe that pouring money into any institution with credit and operating problems-which is the case for every Chinese bank-is madness if it doesn't also bring control. That has been the view of JPMorgan Chase.

　　Until now, Citigroup has taken a more ad hoc[4] approach. It has half-a-dozen branches of its own and a franchise serving multinationals. It has a joint venture with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, a small regional bank that allows it to issue credit cards. Citigroup plans quietly to lift its stake in that bank from 5% to the maximum 20%.

　　Its first challenge with Guangdong will be to improve operations. （4）IBM, which has a huge business serving banks but has had its own sales challenges in China, will presumably be of help transforming Guangdong's lousy[5] IT systems. It is seen as a temporary partner and Citigroup is thought to have the first right of repurchase for IBM's shares.

　　Ideally, Guangdong would be folded into Citigroup, with branches fanning out[6] across China to offer services to the growing middle class, investment products and corporate banking, such as payroll and cash management. （5）For Mr Prince, getting Guangdong （and thus China） right could, by itself, kickstart what has so far been an undistinguished tenure for him. If not, it could be a great leap backwards.

　　[NOTES]（LONGMAN）

　　1. bruising adj. difficult and unpleasant, and leaving you feeling tired or emotionally harmed十分激烈的，殊死的
　　2. non-performing loan 不良貸款
　　3. book value the value of something that a company owns, which it lists in its accounts賬麪價值，淨資産值
　　4. ad hoc adj. not planned, but arranged or done only when necessary特別的
　　5. lousy adj. of very bad quality非常糟糕的
　　6. fan out spreads out in many directions 散開，遍佈